Remember that journalists are humans, too: keep this in mind and try to help the journalist achieve their goals.
A referral system might fizzle out if:
Conversely, a referral system will work best if:
Aspire - Do you regards innovation-led as critical, and do you have cascaded targets that reflect this?
Choose - Do you invest in a coherent, time- and risk-balanced portfolio or initiatives with sufficient resources to win?
Discover - Do you have differentiated business, market, and technology insights that translate into winning value propositions?
Evolve - Do you create new business models that provide defensible and scalable profit sources?
Accelerate - Do you beat the competition by developing and launching innovations quickly and effectively?
Scale - Do you launch innovations at the right scale in the relevant markets and segments?
Extend - Do you win by creating and capitalizing on external networks?
Mobilize - Are your people motivated, rewarded, and organized to innovate repeatedly?
Obviously these assumptions can vary a lot, in either direction. But in any case, being able to deliver a competent communications constellation to LEO for $100k, or even $1m, per unit offers a substantial business opportunity. Even taking into account its ludicrously low usage fraction, a Starlink satellite can deliver 30 PB of data over its lifetime at an amortized cost of $0.003/GB, with practically no marginal cost increase for transmission over a longer distance.
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The SEA-WE-ME 4 is a major submarine cable running from France to Singapore, commissioned in 2005. It is capable of transmitting 1.28Tb/s, and cost about $500m to deploy. If it operates for 10 years equivalent 100% capacity, with a 100% overhead for capital costs, then the price per bit works out to be $0.02/GB. Transatlantic cables are shorter and a bit cheaper, but the undersea cable is just one entity in a long line of people who need money to deliver data. The middle of the road estimate for Starlink is 8 times cheaper, all in, than just the undersea cable.
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One final point is to compare the revenue per Watt of solar power generated for Starlink. Each satellite’s solar array is about 60 sqm according to photographs on the website, which means that they generate an average of around 3kW, or 4.5kWh, over an entire orbit. With a ballpark estimate of $1000 of revenue per orbit, each satellite is generating about $220/kWh. This is 10,000 times the wholesale cost of solar-generated electricity, once again demonstrating that space-based solar power is a losing proposition. Modulating microwaves with data is an enormous value-add!
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All up, 2500 channels each supporting 58 Gbps is a staggering quantity of data, roughly 145 Tbps. For comparison, total internet traffic in 2020 is predicted to average 640 Tbps. This is good news for people worried about inherently low satellite bandwidth. If the 30,000 satellite constellation is active by 2026, global internet traffic may reach 800 Tbps. If 50% of this is served by the ~500 satellites over densely populated areas at any one time, then each satellite will have a peak data rate of about 800 Gbps, ten times higher than our original basic estimate, and thus earning potentially ten times the revenue.
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Use cases
What is the customer profile for Starlink? The default use case is hundreds of millions of suburban subscribers with a pizza box-sized antenna on their roof, but substantial opportunities exist for other streams of revenue.
In remote and rural areas, ground stations won’t need phased array antennas to maximize bandwidth, so smaller user terminals are possible. These range from IoT asset trackers to pocket-sized satellite phones, emergency beacons, or scientific animal tracking equipment.
In densely populated urban environments, Starlink can provide primary and backup backhaul for cellular networks. Each cell tower can have a high-performance ground station mounted to the top, but exploit ground-supplied electricity for amplification and transmission over the last mile.
Finally, even in congested areas during initial roll out, there is a use case for the exceptionally low latency offered by VLEO satellites. Financial firms are willing and able to pay top dollar to get vital information just a bit quicker from every corner of the globe. Even though the path taken by Starlink data is longer due to the hop into space, the vacuum speed of light is about 50% faster than in glass, more than making up for the difference over longer distances.
As Elon Musk has concisely pointed out, the fundamental problem with space-based solar power is that it’s obtaining a commodity, power, somewhere where it’s expensive and selling it somewhere where it’s cheap. This is not a good business.
"Companies are not set up to reward people who want to do this [work ten times harder than average]. You can't go to your boss and say, I'd like to start working ten times as hard, so will you please pay me ten times as much? For one thing, the official fiction is that you are already working as hard as you can. But a more serious problem is that the company has no way of measuring the value of your work."
"A company that could pay all its employees so straightforwardly would be enormously successful. Many employees would work harder if they could get paid for it. More importantly, such a company would attract people who wanted to work especially hard. It would crush its competitors."
"It's like everyone fantasizes about... whatever... but once their fantasies start to become reality, they piss their pants and self-sabotage."
"A lot of times I want to throw up when I'm trying [to go for multi-million ideas]."
"He's got coworkers right now he can commiserate with who understand him. [He could easily start a successful business.] But then what? Then he's the only guy doing this thing. No commiseration. People won't understand him as much.And the more you do that, the more people don't understand."
"The million dollar question... why don't people take the large opportunities in front of them? Why don't they allow their dreams to become realities? Because it means you won't be understood. And we need to be understood, fundamentally, it's so important to us."
Founder/Market Fit
Founder/Product Fit
"Focus on your customers, not the competition. Satisfied customers are not enough. Generate fanaticism and love."
"Society is optimized in the present for the past. When you build the new, societal pressure nudges you down paths of consensus & external validation. Yet that’s not how you’ll build the future. Follow the paths of truth, even if you must initially move forward alone."
The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits
Netflix isn’t that far off from Uber or Airbnb or any of the other market-makers that are transforming industry-after-industry. Netflix:
The Characteristics of Aggregators
Classifying Aggregators
Level 1 Aggregators acquire their supply; their market power springs from their relationship with users, but is primarily manifested through superior buying power.
Level 1 aggregators typically operate in industries where supply is highly differentiated, and are susceptible to competitors with deeper pockets or orthogonal business models.
Level 2 Aggregators do not own their supply; however, they do incur transaction costs in bringing suppliers onto their platform. That limits the growth rate of Level 2 aggregators absent the incursion of significant supplier acquisition costs.
Level 2 aggregators typically operate in industries with significant regulatory concerns that apply to the quality and safety of suppliers.
Level 3 Aggregators do not own their supply and incur no supplier acquisition costs (either in terms of attracting suppliers or on-boarding them).
The Google and Facebook Philosophy
The Microsoft and Apple Philosophy
The Chicken and Egg Question
The Supplier Differentiation Spectrum
The Network Effect Spectrum
The Moat Map
Missing Moats
This is ultimately the most important distinction between platforms and Aggregators: platforms are powerful because they facilitate a relationship between 3rd-party suppliers and end users; Aggregators, on the other hand, intermediate and control it.
Amazon and Aggregation
Aggregators tend to internalize their network effects and commoditize their suppliers.
The Shopify Platform
I would argue that for Shopify a high churn rate is just as much a positive signal as it is a negative one: the easier it is to start an e-commerce business on the platform, the more failures there will be.
The Shopify Fulfillment Network
Shopify is not doing everything on their own: there is an entire world of third-party logistics companies (known as “3PLs”) that offer warehousing and shipping services. What Shopify is doing is what platforms do best: act as an interface between two modularized pieces of a value chain.
Platforms Versus Aggregators
Shopify clears the Bill Gates Line — it captures a minority of the value in the ecosystem it has created.
“That’s a crock of shit. This isn’t a platform. A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.” – Bill Gates